Global progress on Paris Agreement goals as of 2025 shows mixed results, with some positive developments but overall insufficient action to meet the 1.5°C target:

Emissions Reduction

• Aggregated emissions for 25 major emitters could be 2% below 2019 levels by 2025 and 10% below 2019 levels by 2030.
• This projected 10% reduction is positive but falls short of the 43% reduction required to limit warming to 1.5°C.
• Current policies could lead to emissions reaching 34.2 – 39.8 GtCO2e by 2030, a change of -10% to +4% compared to 2019 levels.

Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs)

• Countries were required to update their NDCs by February 2025, with some announcing targets at COP29 in 2024.
• Half of the 25 major emitters analyzed are likely on track to meet their unconditional NDC targets.
• Current NDCs commit to a collective reduction in greenhouse gas emissions of only 14% by 2030 compared to 2022 levels in countries covered by the OECD’s International Programme for Action on Climate.

Policy Implementation

• There has been a slowdown in countries’ climate policy action, with national climate mitigation action expanding by only 1% and 2% in 2022 and 2023 respectively, compared to an average of 10% per year between 2010-21.
• This trend suggests a significant implementation gap, where even modest GHG emissions reduction targets may not be achieved by 2030.

Global Temperature Projections

• If countries fully implement their pledges for 2030 and beyond, the world’s average temperature will still rise more than 2°C by 2100.
• If countries follow through on net-zero targets, warming could be limited to 1.8˚C.

While progress has been made in areas such as renewable energy adoption, with 61 out of 64 countries increasing their share of renewables over the past five years, emission trends in 29 countries are still rated low or very low. The global community must significantly accelerate climate action to align with the Paris Agreement’s temperature goals.