While President-elect Donald Trump has proposed significant policy changes, their impact on the US economy and monetary policy may be more moderate than initially anticipated:
- Economic Growth: Forecasts for US economic growth in 2025 vary widely, ranging from 1.5% to 2.7%, with some optimistic projections exceeding 3%. This uncertainty reflects the potential impact of Trump’s policies.
- Tariffs and Trade: Trump is expected to implement higher tariffs, particularly on Chinese imports, which could lead to increased inflation and slower investment growth. However, these may be implemented gradually rather than all at once, potentially softening their immediate impact.
- Tax Policy: An extension of the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act is anticipated, but its economic impact may be limited. While Trump proposed additional tax cuts during his campaign, there’s skepticism about significant new fiscal stimulus.
- Federal Reserve Policy: The Fed is expected to remain cautious, with only one rate cut projected for 2025 due to solid growth and rising inflation. The central bank is unlikely to accommodate inflationary pressures from tariffs.
- Deregulation: Trump is likely to focus on rolling back financial regulations implemented after the global financial crisis and reducing constraints on cryptocurrencies. However, some Democratic-led states may counteract federal deregulation efforts.
- Immigration: While Trump plans to move quickly on expelling undocumented migrants, his approach to legal migration, particularly for high-skilled workers, remains uncertain.
Despite these policy changes, the overall trajectory of the economy may not be substantially altered. The US is expected to maintain positive growth, albeit potentially at a slower pace, with GDP growth projections ranging from 1.6% to 2.5% for 2025