The US economic forecast for 2025 indicates a slowdown in growth compared to previous years:
- The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) projects US GDP growth of 1.6% in 2025, down from 2.6% in 2024.
- This slowdown is expected to be cushioned by monetary policy easing, with the OECD anticipating US interest rates to fall by 1.5 percentage points by the end of 2025.
- However, other forecasts present a more optimistic outlook:
- The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia’s survey of professional forecasters predicts real GDP growth of 2.4% in 2025.
- Goldman Sachs Research forecasts US GDP growth of 2.5% on a full-year basis for 2025.
- Factors contributing to the potential slowdown include:
- Uncertainty surrounding new federal policies and their potential to exacerbate inflation and drag economic growth.
- The impact of proposed tariffs and immigration policies, which could affect labor force growth and inflation.
- Despite the expected slowdown, the US economy is projected to maintain positive growth, with continued expansion experienced unevenly across different regions.
It’s important to note that economic forecasts vary widely, and actual outcomes may differ based on policy implementation and global economic conditions.