The transition to Donald Trump’s second term as US President in 2025 is expected to have significant impacts on global geopolitics and trade relations:

Geopolitical Shifts

1. Russia and Ukraine: Trump may push for a land-for-peace deal in Ukraine and attempt to reset relations with Russia, potentially through strategic stability talks or a new European security plan.
2. China Relations: Trump faces a choice between escalating tensions through increased tariffs and stronger support for Taiwan, or pursuing a “grand bargain” with China that could involve reduced US commitment to Taiwan.
3. Middle East: Experts believe Trump could help end major conflicts in the region, though specific plans are not yet clear1.

Trade and Economic Impact

1. Tariffs: Trump has threatened new tariffs, particularly on Chinese imports, which could lead to increased inflation and slower investment growth.
2. Global Economy: The IMF projects a 0.8% reduction in global growth in 2025 and -1.3% in 2026 if all of Trump’s proposed tariffs are implemented.
3. Transactional Approach: Trump’s foreign policy is expected to be more transactional, potentially disrupting existing alliances and creating market turbulence.

Domestic and International Reactions

1. Public Opinion: A Fox News poll shows 52% approval of Trump’s transition handling, though 51% say his victory does not represent a mandate.
2. International Concerns: Some experts worry that Trump’s “Project 2025” initiative could lead to democratic backsliding and executive power consolidation.
3. Policy Implementation: Unlike his first term, Trump’s second-term foreign policy team is expected to be more aligned with his agenda, potentially leading to more disruptive policy changes.

As Trump begins his second term, the global landscape appears poised for significant shifts in alliances, trade relations, and geopolitical dynamics, with both opportunities and challenges ahead for international stability and cooperation.